Special Sessions
Changes in atmospheric circulation and Southern Hemisphere regional climate
Julie Arblaster1, Marilyn Raphael2, Ghyslaine Boschat3
1School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, Clayton, Australia, 2 Department of Geography, University of California Los Angeles, United States, 3 Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
Southern Hemisphere regional climates are strongly influenced by variability and trends in the atmospheric circulation. Many features of the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, such as storm tracks or the Amundsen Sea Low, are themselves being affected by climate change. At the same time, they are modulated by large-scale patterns of variability such as the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), the Semi-Annual Oscillation (SAO) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Attributing the causes of observed changes in the mid-latitude circulation over the past 40 years is complex, involving an understanding of the effects of ozone depletion, greenhouse gas increase, decadal variability such as the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation, trends in tropical ocean surface temperature, expansion of the Hadley Circulation, and other factors. This session welcomes contributions on all aspects of Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation variability and change, and their role in changing regional climates.
Extending our view of the past: historical climatology and data rescue in the Southern Hemisphere
Dr Linden Ashcroft1,2, Dr Joelle Gergis2,3, Dr Drew Lorrey4, Professor Rob Allan5, Professor David Nash6, Zak Baillie3
1School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University Of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia, 2Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, , Australia, 3Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia, 4Climate and Environmental Applications, National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research Ltd (NIWA), Auckland, New Zealand, 5Climate Monitoring and Attribution Group, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom, 6School of Environment and Technology, University of Brighton, Brighton, United Kingdom
Since the last ICHSMO, record-breaking droughts, heatwaves floods and bushfires have affected most countries in the Southern Hemisphere. But the statement of ‘record breaking’ is only as significant as the length of the record itself. While many Northern Hemisphere countries enjoy climate records spanning hundreds of years, much of the Southern Hemisphere is still lacking historical meteorological data for periods prior to the turn of the 20th century. The rescue of historical weather data – including both quantitative observations and qualitative descriptions of climate events and their impacts – therefore has a crucial role to play in understanding our current and future risk in a warmer world. In this session we invite new and interdisciplinary submissions on the rescue, interpretation and analysis of historical weather and climate data, as well as societal and environmental information, across the Southern Hemisphere. This can include:
- Instrumental data rescue (land and ocean) projects and practices
- Studies of historical extreme events
- Explorations of 18th and 19th century climate variability and drivers
- Past social engagement with weather, climate and the natural environment
- Development of long-term climate records and chronologies derived from documentary, instrumental or palaeoclimate sources
Biography:
Dr Linden Ashcroft is a lecturer in climate science and science communication at the University of Melbourne. Her research uses the past to help us prepare for the future, exploring the climate of Australia through historical documents and weather observations with the help of citizen scientists. Linden communicates science regularly on community radio, has edited a peer-reviewed journal on scientific data, and her writing was selected for the 2019 Best Australian Science Writing Anthology. In 2020 she was the recipient of the Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society Science Outreach Award.
Droughts in the subtropical Southern Hemisphere
Dr Rene Garreaud1, Dr Wenju Cai 2, Mathieu Rouault 3, Natalie Burls 4, Ross Blamey 3, Chris Reason 3, Pedro Sousa 5
1Universidad De Chile, Chile 2Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Australia 3Department of Oceanography, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, Republic of South Africa 4College of Science, George Mason University, Fairfax city, USA 5 Instiuto Dom Luiz, Universidade de Lisboa, Lisboa, Portugal
Although a warmer global climate increases tropospheric moisture, most regions within the subtropical belt (ca. 25°- 35° of latitude) are expected to become drier during the rest of the 21st century. Since fresh water is scarce and intensively used in these areas, long-term drying and extreme droughts can have major detrimental impacts for humans and the environment. In the Southern Hemisphere, the drying signal is particularly evident in the far eastern side of the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian oceans, encompassing central Chile, South Africa, and western Australia, respectively. Indeed, these regions have been affected by extreme hydroclimate events during the last decades, including protracted and intense droughts (e.g., the Day-zero event in Cape Town and the Central Chile Mega Drought).
In this session we welcome observational and modeling studies describing past, present and future changes in the hydroclimate of the Southern Hemisphere at subtropical latitudes, with emphasis on -but not restricted to- meteorological droughts. Outstanding issues include (a) broad-scale atmospheric circulation driving seasonal or longer precipitation anomalies, (b) the relative roles of natural variability and climate change in causing recent events, (c) hemispheric tele-connections driving common patterns, (d) hydrological, environmental and social impact, and (e) climate projections for the next decade and beyond.
Biography:
Rene Garreaud is a professor at the Department of Geophysics, Universidad de Chile. He is also the deputy director of the Center for Climate and Resilience Research. His areas of expertise include climate variability and change, as well as synoptic meteorology, with emphasis in southern South America.
From ice shelves to the Antarctic Circumpolar Current – Processes, climate variability and climate change in the Ross Sea sector
Erik Behrens1, Dr Denise Fernandez1, Melissa Bowen2
1NIWA, Hataitai, New Zealand, 2University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
1School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University Of Melbourne, Parkville, Australia, 2Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, , Australia, 3Fenner School of Environment & Society, Australian National University, Canberra, Australia, 4Climate and Environmental Applications, National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research Ltd (NIWA), Auckland, New Zealand, 5Climate Monitoring and Attribution Group, Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom, 6School of Environment and Technology, University of Brighton, Brighton, United Kingdom
The Ross Sea is a key region for the global overturning circulation, where surface waters are transformed to dense High-Salinity Shelf Waters. This water mass transformation connects local processes such as polynyas and sea-ice production, with ice-shelf cavities and the large-scale oceanic circulation. A strong focus has been put into the region over the past years to improve our understanding of important processes, climate variability and climate change. The complex feedbacks between sea-ice, ice-shelves, ocean and atmosphere make this region challenging to study. However, progress has been made to detect change, to describe variability and shed light into hidden process using novel measuring platforms/strategies, numerical models and extending existing time series. Extended time series of in situ variables and new modelling tools such as CMIP6 encourage to look into the future and test how the Ross Sea environment responds to anthropogenic forcing, with collapsing ice-shelfs, loss of sea-ice and a degraded ecosystem as a possible outcome.
We invite submissions which have a strong presence in the Ross Sea sector including ocean, atmosphere, ice, paleo, and future projections. While the focus is on physical processes biological and biogeochemical studies with a climate focus are in-scope.
Biography:
Erik Behrens completed a PhD in physical oceanography in Kiel (GEOMAR), Germany studying the oceanic response of a melting Greenland ice-sheet. He moved to New Zealand and joined NIWA in 2014. Over the past year he investigate climate variability and change in the Southern Ocean using numerical models.
Climate Change in Pacific Island Countries
Scott Power1,2,3,4,5, Dr Geoff Gooley6, Mr Salesa Nihmei7, Professor Jim Renwick8, Dr Christophe Menkes9
1Director, Centre for Applied Climate Sciences, USQ, 2School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment, Monash University, 3ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, 4Australia Pacific Climate Partnership, 5Bureau of Meteorology, 6CSIRO, 7SPREP, 8University of Victoria of Wellington, 9IRD
Anthropogenic climate change is already apparent in the Pacific, and while efforts to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions are progressing, further change is locked in. For this session we welcome abstracts on observed changes in Pacific Island countries and the surrounding ocean, including changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events; the cause of the observed changes; what climate models tell us about future climate in the Pacific; how Pacific nations are already preparing for the future; research aimed at helping Pacific Island nations better prepare for the futures projected; and outstanding research and related priorities to better meet the needs of Pacific Islanders.
Biography:
Scott is the Director of the Centre for Applied Climate Sciences at the University of Southern Queensland, and an Adjunct Professor in the School of Earth, Atmosphere and Environment at Monash University. He has published extensively in the international literature on Pacific climate change and variability. He led the development of a project to establish and enhance climate prediction services in numerous Pacific Island countries, and a program to enhance climate change services in countries across the Pacific. He currently co-manages a DFAT-funded project to increase community benefits from Early Warning Systems in the Solomon Islands.
Transdisciplinarity and empowerment in the Pacific Ocean: Translating knowledge and expectations and adapting Sustainable Development Goals to address ocean and climate change
Alexandre Ganachaud1,4, María Máñez Costa2, Pierre-Yves Lemeur3, Karina von Schuckmann4
1LEGOS / ENTROPIE, IRD, Nouméa, New Caledonia, 2Helmholtz Zentrum hereon / . German Institute for Climate Services (GERICS), Hamburg, Germany, 3SENS, IRD, Nouméa, New Caledonia, 4Mercator Ocean International, Toulouse, France
To support informed decision making, stakeholders and decision makers need customised science-based services that are based on sound science, targeted expertise, knowledge hubs and reliable data-based knowledge. The current scientific knowledge can and should support the United Nation Sustainable Development Goals needs by co-creating with local communities common transdisciplinary knowledge pools that embrace the diversity of knowledge-holders and decision makers. This means engaging in a work of translation between cognitive and normative registers with local socioeconomic actors, civil society organizations, customary authorities, and policy makers for a joint empowerment, for improving the relevance and longevity of actions. This session aims at reinforcing and sharing a common understanding of the state, variability, and change of the ocean-human interplay, engaging academic and non-academic experts and knowledge-holders on ocean and climate change, physics, biogeochemistry, marine ecology, adaptation, mitigation and resilience, ecology, social and economic impacts, governance of resources and infrastructure for sustainable development.
Biography:
As a physical oceanographer and climate scientist, I developed expertise in strategic and organizational management of research (director of research at IRD and LEGOS laboratory director). I served as co-chair of the CLIVAR Pacific Panel (2009-2016), and initiated an international ocean and climate programme: the Southwest Pacific Ocean Circulation Experiment (SPICE, 2006-2016) that included field experiments, capacity building and scientific works. I participated, as chapter lead author, to an extensive review of the vulnerability of fisheries in the Pacific Islands (SPC, 2011). I now lead a transdisciplinary Belmont Forum project on Ocean and climate change in the Pacific, PACPATH.
Downscaling and regional modelling – CMIP6 model selection, CORDEX and regional applications
Michael Grose1, Dr Peter Gibson2, Dr Ralph Trancoso3, Dr Giovanni Di Virgilio4, Dr Marcus Thatcher1, Dr Jason Evans5, Dr Sugata Narsey6
1CSIRO, Hobart, Australia, 2NIWA, Wellington, New Zealand, 3Univeristy of Queensland, Brisbane, Australia, 4Department of Planning, Industry and Environment (DPIE), Sydney, Australia, 5University opf New South Wales (UNSW), Sydney, Australia, 6Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
In both New Zealand and Australia there is considerable value and interest in regional climate modelling and downscaling from Global Climate Models (GCMs) outputs to examine questions of regional climate change. Regional modelling is done through the Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) framework and also through other initiatives at the national or sub-national scale. The new set of CMIP6 global climate model simulations is a major new resource for the climate projections research area, including for downscaling, so will be an area of particular focus for the session. There are many topics for research and development in terms of the evaluation of global climate models, selection of a sub-set of models and model experiments including the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), regional modelling choices, evaluation the downscaling results, assessment of added value through downscaling and in application of the results to impact research. This session covers all the topics relevant to the entire chain of processes in evaluating and downscaling any GCM ensemble, assessing and using downscaled results, and will provide a forum to discuss research and also plans for further work.
Biography:
Michael Grose finished a PhD in earth sciences in 2008, and has worked in regional climate and climate change areas since then, with particular interest in climate processes, attribution, projections and communication. Michael is a Lead Author on the upcoming IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, and is a researcher on the newly formed Australian Climate Service (ACS). He is interested in the next generation of climate projections, including the best use of CMIP6, large ensmebles and downscaling of CMIP6 for applications in Australasia and the Pacific.
Atmospheric greenhouse gas measurements and modelling to support emission reductions at urban, national, and global scale.
Sara Mikaloff-fletcher1, Jocelyn Turnbull2, Zoe Loh3
1NIWA, Wellington, Aotearoa New Zealand, 2GNS Science, New Zealand, 3CSIRO, Australia
In 2016, 175 parties agreed to ambitious greenhouse gas reductions under the UNFCCC Paris agreement, yet estimates of greenhouse gas emissions and uptake by carbon sinks remain uncertain. The capability to verify emissions reductions at sub-national, national and global scale is urgently needed to support climate mitigation.
Atmospheric greenhouse gas measurements have a key role to play in supporting our transition to a low carbon world. The amount greenhouse gases stored in the atmosphere is the by far the most well-known component of greenhouse gas budgets due to precise, accurate greenhouse gas records from a global network that comprises more than 400 stations, supported by over 80 nations. This ground based network is complemented by a growing constellation of greenhouse gas measuring satellites. When these observations are combined with atmospheric transport models that link the emissions to atmospheric mixing ratios, they can be used to infer greenhouse gas emissions and uptake through atmospheric inverse modelling.
This session invites presentations that use atmospheric observations of greenhouse gases from ground based stations, satellites, or a combination to understand emissions and uptake at urban, national, or global scales.
Biography:
Dr Mikaloff-Fletcher leads the CarbonWatch-NZ Research Programme, which uses atmospheric observations of greenhouse gases from ground based observing sites to infer carbon emissions and uptake from forests, grasslands and urban areas. In addition, she leads the MethaneSAT Agricultural Science Programme, which will develop the capability to detect agricultural methane emissions from satellite data.
Atmospheric processes driving aperiodic warming and impacts on melt in Antarctica
Marwan Katurji1, Peyman Zawar-Reza1, Kyle Clem2, Jiawei Zhang1, John Cassano3
1University Of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand, 2 Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand, 3 University of Colorado, USA
Aperiodic episodes of extreme surface melt in Antarctica has impacted the stability of ice shelves and caused flooding in terrestrial regions. At the synoptic scale these events are generally attributed to increases in near surface air temperature associated with descending mid-tropospheric air and/or meridional transport of lower latitude warm air mass. At the mesoscale, the complex topography of the Antarctic coastline intercepts the circumpolar cyclonic track to produce localized warming spots that are generally attributed to the Foehn wind mechanism. The knowledge of these regional atmospheric mechanisms and their spatial and temporal impacts along the Antarctic coastline will become more important in a warming Antarctic future. For this session, we particularly encourage contributions related but not limited to the following:
• Observations of surface warming events and characterization of synoptic and mesoscale drivers
• Studies using numerical weather simulations to better understand scale dependent atmospheric processes driving these warming events
• Novel data analyses using a synthesis of satellite-based passive/active remote sensing, automatic weather stations, and numerical weather modelling
Biography:
Dr. Marwan Katurji is an atmospheric boundary layer scientist. He investigates meteorological processes impacted by surface heterogeneity, particularly turbulence energy fluxes within the surface layer. Dr. Katurji is currently leading a New Zealand based Antarctic program that aims to investigate the role of mesoscale atmospheric processes on Antarctica terrestrial hydrology.
Climate and impacts attribution in the Southern Hemisphere
Sarah Perkins-kirkpatrick1, Dr Suzanne Rosier, Ana Elizabeth Ochoa Sánchez
1UNSW Canberra, Campbell, Australia, 2NIWA, Wellington, New Zealand, 3Universidad del Azuay, , Ecuador
Detection and attribution is the science of observing a change in a climate, or climate-related, variable and finding the specific causes that are responsible for the change. The field has grown rapidly over the last two decades, and many methods now exist to attribute long-term trends, extreme events and their impacts to both anthropogenic climate change and natural drivers.
This session invites abstracts on attribution research with a Southern Hemisphere focus. In particular, we invite abstracts that explore novel approaches to attribution, including the framing of the attribution question, scientific methods, quantifying uncertainty, and the communication of the results. We also invite abstracts that explore the attribution of compound extremes or climate-related impacts and those that describe the results of multivariate and dynamics-based attribution, the steps towards near-real-time or forecast-based attribution statements, and end-to-end (emissions-to-impacts) attribution methods and assessments. We do not limit this session to one type or method of detection and attribution, and warmly encourage submissions that span the entire attribution spectrum – trends, events and impacts. We particularly encourage submissions that challenge and/or extend current detection and attribution methods and reasoning, and advance our robust assessments of how human influence is altering our climate.
Biography:
Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick is a Senior Lecturer/ARC Future Fellow in the School of Science, UNSW Canberra. As a climate scientist specialising in extreme events, Sarah’s expertise focuses on heatwaves and event attribution. Sarah has analysed how heatwaves will change under various scenarios of global warming, both over Australia and globally. She is also interested in how natural climate variability drives heatwaves, as well as employing detection and attribution methods to understand how climate change influences specific extremes and their impacts. She is passionate about science communication, and regularly comments on all things heatwaves and climate change in Australian and international media.
Southern Ocean Cloud Processes and Climate
Yi Huang1,2, Prof Steven Sherwood3,4, Dr David Fuchs3,4, Prof Adrian McDonald5, Dr Olaf Morgenstern6, Dr Alain Protat7
1The University Of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia, 2ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Melbourne, Australia, 3The University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia , 4ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Sydney, Australia , 5University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand , 6National Institute of Water & Atmospheric Research Ltd (NIWA), Wellington, New Zealand , 7Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, New Zealand
Our best contemporary climate models continue to be challenged by large errors in the radiation budget over the Southern Ocean and sub-Antarctic zone, which can be traced to a poor understanding of clouds, aerosol, precipitation, radiation, and their complex interactions in this remote region. These errors not only limit the ability of models to predict weather and climate in this region, but associated climate feedbacks have important global consequences.
Satellite remote-sensing technologies and model inter-comparison projects have over the past decade offered important insights into the challenges faced and have spurred significant interest from the international community. As a result, a number of recent international dedicated field campaigns targeted fundamental understanding of key atmospheric processes over the Southern Ocean through coordinated aircraft, shipborne and land-based observations. Similarly, intense efforts are being made by the modelling community towards improving state-of-the-art climate models via evaluation against developing observational reference datasets. These integrated efforts are a key to refining our knowledge of the atmosphere and climate in this climatically important region.
In this session, we encourage observational (field and remote-sensing) and modelling studies at any spatial/temporal scale that advances our understanding of cloud-aerosol-precipitation-radiation processes in the Southern Ocean and sub-Antarctic zone, their interactions and feedbacks, and consequences for global climate and climate change.
Biography:
Dr Yi Huang is a Lecturer at the University of Melbourne and an Associate Investigator of the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes.
Yi’s research addresses some of the fundamental yet climatically important questions: How do clouds and precipitation modulate Earth’s climate system? What processes control the properties of clouds and precipitation? How do these processes differ geographically? She believes this can only be achieved by innovative use of targeted field observations, remote-sensing data and numerical modelling.
Yi’s other research includes hydrometeorological processes over the Australian alps, cloud–climate interactions over the Great Barrier Reef, and cloud–radiation–Antarctic sea ice interactions.
Understanding compound events and multivariate risk
Dr Nina Nadine Ridder1, Dr Andrew Dowdy2, Dr Thomas Mortlock3, Prof Andy Pitman1
1Australian Research Council Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia, 2Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia, 3Risk Frontiers, Sydney, Australia
The newly emerging field of compound events (CEs) deals with weather and climate events that are caused by a combination of multiple hazards and/or drivers with the potential to cause severe socio-economic and ecological impacts. CEs have been behind some of the most devastating events over the past decades. As such, research into these multivariate extremes is essential for risk management, first responders, key industries, and policymakers. To cater for the needs of these stakeholders, the research needs to be impact-focused such that it supports building current and future resilience of essential systems. Of particular interest are the physical processes and relationships that drive CEs, and the probability of CE occurrences under past, present, and future climate conditions. This session invites research relevant to CEs including research methods, and stakeholder engagement practices to support the growth of the southern hemisphere CE research community. Particularly, we would like to invite researchers working on the compound nature of hazards such as heatwaves, bushfires, drought, hydrological extremes, and tropical/extratropical cyclones with a regional and/or global focus.
We propose Nina Ridder and Andrew Dowdy to be the co-chairs of the meeting and all authors being session organisers. We aim for a dual event to facilitate the participation of a wide range of interested parties that might not be able to join this event in person as a large number of participants supports the aim of this session to connect researchers in the field without discriminating due to geographical location or financial background.
Biography:
Nina received her PhD in Climate Science from the University of New South Wales in 2014 after completing her dissertation on the global carbon cycle at the Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence (CoE) for Climate System Science. After working for the European Space Agency and the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, Nina returned to Australia and the ARC CoE for Climate Extremes early 2019. Her work focuses on compound climate and weather extremes. As such, Nina addresses the co-occurrence of multiple natural hazards that have been associated with the most severe socio-economic damages globally and within Australia.
Advances in the application of climate forecasts in industry
Carly Tozer1, Dr James Risbey1, Dr Lynette Bettio2, Dr Rebecca Darbyshire3, Dr Chris White4
1CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, Hobart, Australia, 2Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia, 3CSIRO Agriculture & Food, Canberra, Australia, 4University of Strathclyde, Glasgow, Scotland
Climate variability, on the sub-seasonal to multi-decadal timescale, is a major source of risk to industry sectors, like agriculture and water resources management. These sectors can benefit from climate forecasts though there are challenges in the application of forecasts in practice. For example, the probabilistic nature of climate forecasts may not suit existing operational systems. We invite presentations on the application of climate forecasts and large climate model ensembles more generally, showing the translation of climate forecasts into information that can help inform management and planning in industry. Examples of co-production of knowledge are particularly encouraged, i.e. the close collaboration of scientists and clients to build knowledge (e.g. frame research questions together) around the application of climate forecasts in a specific industry setting.
Biography:
Dr Carly Tozer is a Research Scientist at CSIRO Oceans & Atmosphere, with an interest in characterising the ocean-atmospheric processes influencing Australia’s weather and climate (particularly extremes), and understanding their predictability for rainfall forecasting. Carly gets great satisfaction from the application and uptake of her research by stakeholders
Severe Thunderstorms in the Southern Hemisphere
Rob Warren1, Joshua Soderholm1, Paola Salio2, Harald Richter1
1Bureau Of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia, 2University of Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
Severe thunderstorms produce some of the most dramatic and destructive natural phenomena on the planet, yet remain extremely challenging to predict due to their small scale, rapid evolution, and strong sensitivity to large-scale conditions. There are also many unanswered questions regarding the physical processes that govern these storms and their associated hazards. To date, the vast majority of severe thunderstorm research has focussed on the United States (in particular, the Great Plains region) and, to a lesser extent, Europe. Yet many Southern Hemisphere nations are also frequently impacted by these storms. This session aims to bring together experts from across the Southern Hemisphere to discuss recent advances in the science and prediction of severe thunderstorms and to highlight avenues for future research. Relevant presentation topics include the physical processes and predictability of severe thunderstorms, the production, communication, and application of forecasts and warnings of these events, and the effects of natural variability and climate change on their frequency and severity. We would, in particular, encourage contributions from operational meteorologists and early career researchers.
Biography:
Rob Warren is research scientist at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. His current work is focussed on improving forecast guidance for thunderstorms and associated severe weather. Rob completed a PhD at the University of Reading in 2014 and subsequently worked as a postdoc for several years at Monash University. His research interests include the dynamics and predictability of deep moist convection, radar applications, high-resolution modelling, and forecast verification.
New frontiers in Marine Heatwave Research
Alex Sen Gupta1, Neil Holbrook2, Regina Rodrigues3, Claire Spillman4, Erik Behrens5, Moninya Roughan1, Mads Thomsen6
1University Of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia, 2 University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia, 3 Federal University of Santa Catarina, Florianópolis, Brazil, 4 Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia, 5 National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research of New Zealand, 6 University of Canterbury, New Zealand
While the gradual change in our background climate is pervasive, changes in the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme events often cause the greatest impacts and damage to ecosystems, infrastructure and the human systems that rely on them. Over the last decade, there has been a surge in efforts to understand marine heatwaves (MHWs), with research undertaken into: defining and categorizing events; linking MHWs to local processes, synoptic conditions and large scale climate drivers; quantifying past and future trends; and understanding how MHWs impact ecosystems. While much is still to be done in these areas, including better fundamental understanding of the causes and impacts of individual events and in searching for general patterns across MHWs, there are also a number of new frontiers emerging in MHW research. These include: understanding the three dimensional evolution of events; characterising the occurrence and impact of compound events – where MHWs interact with biogeochemical or terrestrial extremes; examining on what timescales and under what conditions MHWs may be predictable; and understanding how ecosystem responses to MHWs affect fisheries and other human systems. We encourage submissions describing new research into MHWs, particularly pertaining to these new frontiers where the findings are relevant to the Southern Hemisphere.
Biography:
Alex is a climate scientist and physical oceanographer. His work focusses on the role of the ocean in the climate system including marine heatwaves, future changes in ocean circulation, climate modes and their teleconnections.
Urban Climate
Melissa Hart1, Dr Negin Nazarian1,2
1 Arc Centre Of Excellence For Climate Extremes, UNSW Sydney, 2 School of Built Environment, UNSW Sydney
Land-use modifications due to urbanization can modify the energy balance in cities; this in turn affects the urban thermal environment. With greater than 50% of the world1s population living in urban areas it is imperative we understand the impact of both cities on climate and climate on cites.
Research that would be of relevance to this session include: urban heat studies, urban weather forecasting, urban canopy models, representation of urban areas in climate models, urban areas and extreme events, urban air quality, urban climate and health, and urban climate mitigation strategies.
Physical and Biological Connectivity in Southern Hemisphere Oceans and Seas
Christopher Roach1, Carolyn Lundquist2,3
1 Metocean Solutions, Raglan, New Zealand, 2 National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, , New Zealand, 3 University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand
Physical and biological connectivity within the world’s oceans and seas is important for understanding drivers of climatic change (e.g. connectivity of water masses between the Antarctic margins and the Southern Ocean) and how physical features of the ocean, including ocean currents, eddies and fronts, influence biological connectivity with implications for fisheries management and restoration (e.g. genetic connectivity between populations of mussels).
This session invites studies of physical or biological connectivity in the context of Southern Hemisphere oceans, seas and coastal waters. Topics are welcomed that cover the diverse techniques that are used to increase understanding, including both physical and biological modelling and empirical research, ranging from numerical particle tracking, numerical and real-world tracer release experiments, real-world Lagrangian instrumentation (e.g. RAFOS floats, surface drifters), and validation of biological connectivity using in situ sampling, genetics and microchemistry to inform modelling of physical-biological relationships.
Biography:
Dr. Christopher Roach received his PhD in 2014 through the University of Tasmania-CSIRO Quantitative Marine Science Programme. He has worked at Florida State University; the University of Hawaii; the University of Tasmania; CNRS and MetOcean Solutions.
His research ranges from the Southern Ocean to the Arctic, with an emphasis on lagrangian techniques and platforms. He has used real world lagrangian data, such as Argo float and surface drifter trajectories, to create maps of global cross-stream mixing and used of numerical lagrangian particle tracking to examine the inflow of water to the Ross Gyre and Arctic Sea.
Physical and biogeochemical dynamics of the Southern Ocean and Antarctic margins
Adele Morrison1, Melissa Bowen2, Annie Foppert3, Paul Spence4
1 Australian National University, Canberra, Australia, 2 University of Auckland, Auckland, New Zealand, 3 University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia, 4 University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia
The Southern Ocean plays a critical role in the global climate system by facilitating the exchange of heat and carbon between the deep ocean, atmosphere, and Antarctic margins. Ongoing subduction of anthropogenic carbon and heat, primarily in the mid-latitude Southern Ocean, is a significant mitigating influence on the rate of atmospheric warming. Further south, the recent acceleration of Antarctic ice shelf melt has been driven by warming ocean waters around the continent and is leading to enhanced glacial flow and sea level rise. In the past, paleoclimate evidence suggests that glacial-interglacial atmospheric CO2 changes were driven by changes in Southern Ocean upwelling. However, despite the significance of the Southern Ocean for global climate, our understanding of the circulation and climate feedbacks remains limited by sparse observations and imperfect numerical models.
This session welcomes contributions addressing the physical and biogeochemical processes that impact the air-sea exchange and transport of heat and carbon in the Southern Ocean and Antarctic margins under past, present, and future climates. These include (but are not limited to) contributions on water mass transformation, the overturning circulation, the Antarctic Circumpolar Current and shelf/slope currents, carbon cycling, as well as ocean-ice-atmosphere interactions.
Biography:
Dr Adele Morrison is an ARC DECRA Fellow and CI on the Australian Centre for Excellence in Antarctic Science, based at the Australian National University. Previously, received her PhD from ANU in 2014 and spent three years as a postdoctoral fellow at Princeton University. Dr Morrison is a physical oceanographer who studies large-scale ocean circulation and its relationship with Earth’s climate.
Modelling, prediction and projections of Southern Hemisphere climate variability and change
Harun Rashid1, Dr Eun-Pa Lim2, Dr Ian Watterson1, Dr Tilo Ziehn1
1 CSIRO, Aspendale, Australia, 2 Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
Biography:
Dr Harun Rashid is a Principal Research Scientist and Team Leader of the Coupled Climate Modelling Team in CSIRO Climate Science Centre. He received his PhD in Atmospheric Science from Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand. He has worked as a research scientist at the The University of Melbourne, The Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre, and CSIRO. His research interest lies in the understanding of climate variability and change using observational data, reanalyses, and coupled climate model simulations.
Climate models are important for understanding the dynamics of the atmosphere and ocean and for predicting and projecting climate variability and change. Model simulations provide climate information crucial for planning, mitigation and adaptation across all sectors of society. The CMIP6/CMIP5 multi-model ensembles have been a main source of the climate information produced by analyses from climate scientists worldwide. Also, several single-model large ensembles are now available for analysis, including one from ACCESS-ESM1-5, complementing the CMIP multi-model ensembles. This session invites oral and poster presentations on the analyses of Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate variability and extremes, and their changes under global warming, using the CMIP or single-model ensembles. Scientific questions of interest include (but not limited to):
• Prominent variability modes affecting the SH climate variability, e.g., SAM, MJO, IOD, ENSO and IPO and their changes under global warming
• Analyses of climate extremes under a changing climate and the relevant mechanisms
• Impacts of internal climate variability on the detection and attribution of climate change signals
• Tropical-extratropical teleconnections and the projected future changes
• Coupled interactions between the atmosphere, oceans, land, and sea-ice under the historical and future climates
• Analyses of dynamical seasonal and decadal predictions from individual modelling centres.
Weather radar applications.
Valentin Louf 1, Dr Joshua Soderholm 1, John Nicol 1 , Mark Curtis 1
1 Bureau Of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia
Weather radars are a key meteorological instrument used for monitoring wind and precipitation and have become the primary tool used for short-term (0-6h) weather forecasting. Radar remains the most effective instrument for monitoring the occurrences and movement of precipitation patterns. It is also the primary tool to detect or infer the presence of many hazardous weather conditions such as severe thunderstorms, hail, and tornadoes. Many Southern Hemisphere countries are extremely vulnerable to such casualties and weather-related disasters. Radars are not just limited to monitoring and nowcasting hazardous precipitation. In fact, the versatile nature of weather radars can help in evaluating numerical simulations of precipitating cloud systems, characterizing convection, or studying precipitation. The scope of this session is to address applications of weather radar for the study of atmospheric and climatic processes, operational forecasting including QPE and nowcasting, and industry applications for assessing value and impact. Further, contributions from forecasters and early career scientists are encouraged.
Biography:
Valentin Louf studied atmospheric remote sensing at the University of Sciences and Technologies of Lille, Villeneuve-d’Ascq, France. He received the Ph.D. degree in atmospheric physics from the University of Lille, Lille, France, in 2014. His work has dealt with tropical convection using weather radars, as well as new processing and calibration techniques for weather radars. Since 2016, he has been with Monash University, Melbourne, VIC, Australia, and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne studying topical convection using weather radar observations.
Year of Polar Prediction in the Southern Hemisphere (YOPP-SH)
David Bromwich1, Prof Adrian McDonald2, Professor Daniela Liggett2
1Ohio State University/ Byrd Polar Res. Cntr., Columbus, USA, 2University of Canterbury, Christchurch, New Zealand
YOPP-SH seeks to improve environmental prediction for the Southern Ocean and Antarctica on time scales up to 1 month. YOPP-SH held a special observing period (SOP) in the 2018/19 season, coinciding with the greatest summer operational activity in the Antarctic on record. YOPP-SH is undertaking another SOP from mid-April to mid-July 2022 to sample the period of rapid Antarctic sea-ice growth. Recognizing the limited resources and personnel available, Targeted Observing Periods (TOPs) featuring enhanced observations are adopted within this SOP. Four to five TOPs lasting a few days each are planned that target major winter forecasting challenges such as intense oceanic cyclones and atmospheric rivers. This session aims to discuss the current state of knowledge around meteorological research and forecasting in the Antarctic as well as challenges related to using this knowledge to improve operational safety. We invite contributions that advance YOPP-SH goals, including:
• Data denial experiments with regional and global forecasting systems to examine the forecast impact of the additional radiosonde observations collected during the summer SOP.
• Characterization of Antarctic phenomena that are challenging to predict such as atmospheric rivers and barrier winds.
• Evaluation of coupled and uncoupled model forecasts for planetary boundary layer, clouds, precipitation, and sea ice.
• Advancing atmospheric data assimilation for the Southern Ocean and Antarctica.
• Studies aimed at optimizing the upcoming winter TOPs through Forecast Sensitivity to Observations (FSO) to identify key regions for enhanced observations.
• Research on the use and value of environmental forecasts to inform operational decision-making.
Biography:
David Bromwich is a Research Professor with the Atmospheric Sciences Program, Department of Geography and Senior Research Scientist with the Byrd Polar and Climate Research Center, The Ohio State University, USA. His research deals with the weather and climate of the Antarctic and Arctic using numerical modeling and in-depth observational analyses.
Land surface processes and interactions with the atmosphere
Lina Teckentrup1,2, Dr Jürgen Knauer3, Dr Sami Rifai1,2
1Climate Change Research Centre, Sydney, Australia, 2ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Sydney, Australia, 3Western Sydney University, Sydney, Australia
The land surface plays a key role in the Earth system shaping the terrestrial energy, carbon and water cycles, and interacting with the atmosphere and global climate. A sound understanding of the underlying physical and physiological processes, including anthropogenic influences, are essential to assess the present and future role of the land surface in the Earth system including, but not limited to, its capacity to mitigate climate change through the uptake of carbon. This session aims to present the latest research in land surface processes and land-atmosphere interactions. We welcome contributions using both models and observations, ranging from single sites to the global scale, and including both natural and anthropogenically shaped systems. In particular, studies improving our process-based understanding of the land surface and its components (vegetation, soil, surface water, land use etc.) at various time scales are encouraged.
Biography:
Lina is a third year PhD student and interested in interactions between vegetation and the atmosphere. In her research, she is focussing on the effects of climate variability on the terrestrial carbon sink. She is further interested in the representation of the carbon cycle over Australia in dynamic global vegetation models. Before starting her PhD at the Climate Change Research Centre in Sydney, she graduated in Meteorology at the University of Hamburg and did research with a focus on global fire modelling at the Max Planck Institute of Meteorology.
Meteorology and Climatology of Wildfires
Grant Pearce1, Dr Tara Strand1, Dr Marwan Katurji2
1 Scion, Rural Fire Research Group, Christchurch, New Zealand, 2 University of Canterbury, School of Earth and Environment, Christchurch, New Zealand
In recent years, a global surge in the occurrence of unprecedented extreme wildfire events is testing our established knowledge of how fires respond to weather and climate.
This session would align with the Weather and Extreme Events theme, and cover all aspects of the meteorology and climatology of wildfires ranging from small-scale fire turbulence right up to large-scale climate interactions and climate change, including modelling and observations. This session welcomes research advancing our knowledge in weather and climate dynamics influencing wildfire behaviour, such as:
• Observational field campaigns aiming to understand the role of short term weather processes on fire behaviour
• Coupled numerical weather and fire modelling studies for understanding meteorological processes influencing fire behaviour across atmospheric scales
• Investigative case studies for past wildfire events demonstrating new knowledge
• Climate projections on future fire occurrence and severe fire weather
• Challenges and advances in weather and fire behaviour modelling and prediction
A wide range of contributions could be expected from Australia, South America and NZ, as well as more broadly internationally, both in person and virtually.
Local chairs include Drs Tara Strand and Grant Pearce (Scion Rural Fire Research Group) and Marwan Katurji (University of Canterbury School of Earth and Environment), as well as potential international contributors such as Profs Jason Sharples (University of NSW) and Craig Clements (San José State University Dept of Meteorology and Climate Science).
Biography:
Grant Pearce is a Senior Fire Scientist with Scion's Rural Fire Research Group, specialising in wildfire behaviour, fire danger rating and fire weather and climate.
Dr Tara Strand is General Manager-Forests and Landscapes at Scion, with a background in atmospheric modelling of smoke and airborne particulates for wildfires and forests.
Dr Marwan Katurji is a Senior Lecturer in Atmospheric Dynamics at the School of Earth and Environment, University of Canterbury.
Antarctic sea ice and its climate interactions
Will Hobbs1, Dr Ariaan Purich, Dr Edward Doddridge, Dr Andrew Kiss
1University Of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia
Sea ice is one of the most visible indicators of Antarctic climate variability. The four-decade satellite record of sea ice cover demonstrates a long-term increase from the late 1970s to 2015, followed by a precipitous decline in 2016; the causes of both these occurrences continue to be debated in the scientific literature. Sea ice changes reflect a complex and fascinating interplay of ocean, atmosphere and cryosphere. Antarctic sea ice is influenced by climate variability as far north as the Tropics, and impacts the Southern Ocean uptake of heat and carbon, with global consequences. This interaction between all aspects of the climate system makes the topic of Antarctic sea ice variability highly relevant for ICSHMO 2022. In this session, we invite contributions from all research – modelling and observations – that address the broad topic of Antarctic sea ice’s relationship with the climate, and in particular the processes that drive that interaction.
Biography:
Dr Will Hobbs is scientist with the Australian Antarctic Program Partnership, based at the University of Tasmania in Hobart. His research focusses on the feedbacks between sea ice and the Southern Ocean, and how those feedbacks impact the climatology, trends and variability of Antarctic sea ice. His work uses both models and observations.
Science supporting the Paris agreement: Southern Hemisphere perspectives
Rachel Law1, Dr Tilo Ziehn1, Ying-Ping Wang1
1CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Aspendale, Australia
Biography:
Dr Rachel Law is a principal research scientist at CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere and leads the 'Modelling the Earth System' Group within the Climate Science Centre. Her research interests are focused on the carbon cycle and climate.
The Southern Ocean and Tropical Climate System: Variability, Change, and Linkage
Dr Wenju Cai1,2,3, Dr Xuebin Zhang1, Dr Guojian Wang1,2,3, Agus Santoso1,4
1 Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), CSIRO, Hobart, Australia, 2 Frontier Science Centre for Deep Ocean Multispheres and Earth System and Physical Oceanography Laboratory, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China, 3 Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology (QNLM), Qingdao, China, 4 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes and Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW, Sydney, Australia
The Southern Ocean is a key element of the global climate system, playing an important role in heat uptake, global carbon cycle and interaction with Antarctic Ice Sheet. It has undergone changes in recent decades, and significant shifts in its processes, such as the Southern Annular Mode, sea level, ice and cloud feedbacks, are projected as greenhouse warming ensues. More evidence has emerged suggesting air-sea-ice processes in the Southern Ocean are linked to the tropical climate system which features inter-basin linkage via atmospheric bridge and ocean pathways such as the Indonesian Throughflow. The tropical climate itself has been changing significantly and is projected to change with more frequent extreme El Niño Southern Oscillation and extreme positive Indian Ocean Dipole events. Understanding how processes in the tropics and Southern Ocean operate and interact is important for a more complete knowledge of global climate change.
This session is facilitated by the Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research (CSHOR), a joint research between the Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science (QNLM, China), CSIRO, UNSW and UTAS. We solicit a broad scope of presentations on the above research components, including the response to past, present, and future climate forcing, interactions between ocean basins, low- and high-latitudes, ice and ocean, from observation-based to modelling perspectives, and from basin-scale to regionally-focused investigations.
Biography:
Dr Wenju Cai is a Chief Research Scientist, an Office of Chief Executive Science Leader at CSIRO, and Director of Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research. His research specialises into global climate variability and change. His service to science communities includes a contributing authorship to IPCC reports, co-Chair of World Climate Research Programme CLIVAR Pacific Panel (2009 – 2015), a member of the CLIVAR Scientific Steering Group (2016-2018) and its co-Chair (2019-ongoing). In 2020, Cai was elected as Fellow of the Australian Academy Science.
Informing modern risk assessment and decision making with long climate reconstructions
Danielle Verdon-Kidd1, Dr Kathryn Allen2,
Dr Andrew Lorrey4, Dr Karl Mallon5, Dr Jonathan Palmer3
1 University Of Newcastle,
Callaghan, Australia, 2 University of Tasmania, Hobart, Australia, 3 NIWA,
Auckland City, New Zealand, 4 Climate Risk Pty Ltd, Sydney,
Australia, 5 University of New South Wales, Kensington, Australia
Weather and climate-related extremes, ranging from devastating bushfires and heat waves to prolonged and intense drought and major floods, have major implications for built infrastructure and environment, land use planning and ecological systems. Recent observed changes in the nature of extremes have been linked to anthropogenic climate change. However, there is an increasingly urgent need for a longer term perspective that can better contextualise current changes in frequency, magnitude and intensity of single event and compound climate extremes.
This session aims to draw together risk modelling practitioners from industry and government sectors with palaeoclimate scientists developing climate reconstructions that can be used to inform risk assessment and decision making around climate extremes. This session will promote collaboration between industry-government sectors and scientists and highlight how palaeoclimate data can be applied to contemporary problems.
Abstract submissions are invited that demonstrate how long climate reconstructions can (or could) assist in better understanding risk across a range of sectors. The session will likely be run both virtually and in person.
Biography:
Lying at the nexus of climate science, hydrology and palaeoclimatology, Danielle’s research seeks to understand what causes climate-related disasters, and what can be done about it. Of particular interest to Danielle is integrating information from the palaeoclimate records and the instrumental records to better assess climate driven risks. Danielle has also carried out a number of projects, within the consulting environment, aimed at helping clients to assess their vulnerability to climate variability/change and their ability to adapt to climate extremes.
Renewable energy nexus with weather and climate
Roger Dargaville1, Dr Merlinde Kay2
1Monash University, Melbourne , Australia, 2University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia
Weather has always had a strong influence on the operation of electricity systems. In particular, demand for electricity has always been impacted by both cooling and heating requirements, and electricity infrastructure has been designed to withstand fluctuations and extreme weather. However, the changing climate and increasing dependence on weather driven renewable generation poses new challenges to the security, reliability and cost of the power system.
This session aims to bring together the latest climate and weather science together with power system operations research. We welcome submissions on the impact of weather and climate on electricity systems including electricity demand, renewable energy resources assessment, forecasting for wind and solar generation, integration of energy systems incorporating variable renewable energy power as well as the impact of El Nino, drought, and extreme events (i.e. wind and bushfires) on the electricity networks.
Biography:
Roger Dargaville is the Deputy Director of the Monash Energy Institute and has been building and running models of large-scale electricity networks to investigate optimal configurations of wind, solar PV and other generation technologies to meet carbon emission reduction targets. He has a background in atmospheric physics combined with 15 years in the energy sector at the IEA, Melbourne and Monash Universities.
Climate as a complex system - rapid change, regime shifts and irreversibility
Surendra Rauniyar1, Prof. Roger Jones2, Genevieve Tolhurst1, Dr James Ricketts2, Dr Pandora Hope1
1 Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Melbourne, Australia, 2 Victoria University, Melbourne, Australia
The non-linear nature of interactions in the climate system means that the response to forcing can result in rapid change including regime shifts and tipping points. This session calls for presentations detailing both statistical assessments highlighting such changes as well as descriptions of the underlying physical causes of complex behaviour in the climate system. Presentations exploring the emergence of a climate change signal, nature of different climate regimes and irreversibility are also welcome. Both global and regional studies are invited.
Biography:
Surendra Rauniyar is an experienced scientific researcher with over ten years of research experience in weather, climate and hydro-meteorological sciences. He is currently working as a research scientist in the Climate Change Processes team at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. Surendra's research interests include understanding the south Australia's climate variability and change, their associated drivers and attribution of observed change. Surendra has a background in civil engineering and received his PhD from the University of Melbourne in 2015, where he examined the spatio-temporal variability of tropical rainfall caused by three major modes of climate variability.
Processes and interactions of drought
Ailie Gallant1,2, Dr Tess Parker1,2, Andrea Taschetto3,4, Professor Regina Rodrigues5
1Monash University, Melbourne, Australia, 2ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Melbourne, Australia, 3University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia, 4ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, Sydney, Australia, 5Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Florianopolis, Brazil
Drought is an all-pervasive, often-unrelenting high-impact climate event that can affect millions, even billions, of people when it occurs. Understanding the atmospheric, oceanic and land-surface processes leading to, reinforcing and terminating droughts is key for their prediction and monitoring, and for managing their impacts. This session invites talks that explore the atmospheric, oceanic and land-surface processes that cause, interact with, and terminate drought. We welcome talks that present process-based observational and/or modelling studies, or use novel techniques, designed to probe and reveal the key mechanisms involved in drought onset, development, and/or termination. We invite studies examining mechanisms from the hemispheric scale (e.g. mechanisms of ENSO teleconnections) to local scale (e.g. synoptic-scale or land-surface feedback processes) for all types of drought including short-lived flash drought, decadal-scale dry spells, and everything in between.
Biography:
Dr Ailie Gallant is an expert in drought and drought processes from Monash University.
Regional climate variability and change over the Southern Hemisphere extratropics
Julia Mindlin1,2,3, Dr. Leandro Diaz1,2,3, Lic. Elio Campitelli1,2,3, Lic. Nadia Testandi1,2,3, PhD Bastien Dieppois4, Andrea Taschetto5,6
1Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y los Océanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales,Universidad De Buenos Aires, Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires, Argentina, 2Centro de Investigaciones del Mar y la Atmósfera, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas, Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires, Argentina, 3Instituto Franco Argentino sobre estudios de Clima y sus impactos (IFAECI-UMI3351), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires, Argentina, 4CAWR - Coventry University, Coventry, United Kingdom, 5 Climate Change Research Centre, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia, 6ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes, University of New South Wales, , Australia
Regional climate variability is largely driven by variations in ocean temperatures. Heating in the tropics can perturb the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the extratropics via mid-latitude Rossby waves, mediated by changes in the Hadley Cell, and the strength and position of the subtropical and eddy driven jets. The forcing in the tropics can also alter the atmospheric circulation via stratospheric pathways, leading to variability in the polar vortex. The processes behind the climatic features of the extratropical circulation have been much less studied in the Southern Hemisphere compared to the Northern Hemisphere. They affect temperature and precipitation over land, influencing the intensity and frequency of extremes, such as drought, floods, and heatwaves.This session aims to gather recent insights on how large-scale climate drivers impact regional climate over the Southern Hemisphere and their expected changes in a warmer climate. We welcome contributions on the processes of large-scale circulation, extratropical teleconnections, and their interaction with regional climate, on sub-seasonal to multi-year timescales and beyond. Presenters will share their perspectives on the greatest challenges and learn from the latest advances on the Southern Hemisphere climate variability and change.
Understanding how large scale circulation affects regional climate variability is crucial for improving the performance of climate models, and ultimately enhancing regional climate predictions. Advancing our knowledge of regional climate variability in southern extratropics can have indirect implications for regional Southern Hemisphere stakeholders and communities developing near- and long-term strategies for adaptation and mitigation of extreme events and changes under warmer climate scenarios.
Biography:
The principal organizer of the session, Julia Mindlin is a PhD candidate from University of Buenos Aires. She obtained her degree in Geophysics at the University of La Plata in 2019, Argentina and started her PhD the same year under the supervision of Carolina S. Vera and Theodore G. Shepherd from University of Reading (UK). Her doctorate research is focused on applying the novel storyline approach for understanding physically plausible changes in the large-scale circulation of the Southern Hemisphere using causal machine learning algorithms and global climate models. She is also a YESS regional representative for South America.
Tropical climate variability: dynamics, teleconnections, and impacts
Andrea Taschetto1,2, Shayne McGregor3,2, Dietmar Dommenget3,2, Agus Santoso1,2,4
1 University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia, 2 ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes UNSW, Sydney, Australia, 3 Monash University, Melbourne, Australia, 4 Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research, CSIRO, Hobart, Australia
The tropical oceans play a fundamental role in driving atmospheric teleconnections to the extratropics. Prominent climate phenomena, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation, the Indian Ocean Dipole, and the Atlantic Niño, manifest in the tropical oceans and influence weather patterns, rainfall and temperature over vast regions globally. Understanding the processes behind the genesis and evolution of these tropical climate phenomena and how they affect the global atmospheric circulation can provide valuable information to improve their representation in climate models, with potential implications for more accurate climate predictions and future projections.
Despite advances in the science of tropical variability in recent decades, several aspects of the tropical climate are yet to be understood. Some of the facets that remain elusive are the dynamics associated with El Niño diversity, the interaction between climate phenomena across tropical ocean basins, the atmospheric teleconnections modulated by combined climate phenomena, the processes that affect regional weather and local impacts, to name a few. Closing the knowledge gaps in the tropical variability science can ultimately improve skill in seasonal forecasts and future projections.
This session invites contributions of studies that address the dynamics, impacts, and teleconnection of tropical variability, in the past, present and future climate. Contributions include, but are not limited to, Indo-Pacific variability, Atlantic biases, ENSO theory and diversity, inter-basin interactions, model representation, atmospheric teleconnections, and climate change projections.
Biography:
Andréa Taschetto is an Associate Professor at the Climate Change Research Centre, UNSW, and a Chief Investigator at the ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes.
Her research focuses on climate variability, ocean-atmosphere interaction, large-scale atmospheric dynamics, and global teleconnection patterns. She is interested in understanding how the tropical oceans affect regional climate from seasonal to multidecadal timescales and beyond, including future changes to increased greenhouse warming.
Tropical Cyclones
Clair Stark1, Professor Liz Ritchie
1UNSW Canberra, Canberra, Australia
Tropical cyclone events are a significant threat to life and property and cause large economic losses globally each year. Despite improvements in basic understanding and forecasting, significant impacts continue to occur in TC-prone regions. This suggests that there is still considerable effort needed to mitigate impacts into the future. The purpose of this session is to promote discussion on the current state of TC research and future predictions in the Southern Hemisphere. Topics of interest include the impacts of climate change on Southern Hemisphere TC activity, genesis, intensity and structure change, TC-ocean interactions, the impacts of landfalling TCs and improved communication and methods for user decision-making. It is also hoped that such a session might help focus future research on problems particular to the Southern Hemisphere, to anticipate future problems and to stimulate the development of conceptual models for TC motion, intensity, and impacts (which really synthesise the knowledge in the area) which benefit the community.
Biography:
Clair Stark is a lecturer at UNSW Canberra researching physical oceanography and tropical cyclones. Her main research projects include estimating TC windfields using satellite cloud images, and the impact of TCs on the ocean heat content and related heat transport.
Key Dates
Session Submission deadline
Abstract Submission Deadline
9 October, 2021
Author Notification
30 November, 2021
Early Registration
Deadline
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