Designing for Uncertainty 

Andrew Thompson, Michelle Grant and Tim Sullivan 

This session seeks to examine the considerable uncertainty that underlies earthquake engineering design, and the way that designers respond. Some sources of uncertainty we can do little to control whereas others are well within our power to manage. In recognising uncertainty, there are many choices that designers can make which have significant impacts on real risk outcomes. The speakers will look at the trends in outcomes delivered by New Zealand’s Building Code framework and commercial environment—and what designers can do to deliver enduring designs which stand the test of time. Different options for quantifying uncertainties and relating these to risk metrics will be discussed, alongside the challenge of communicating uncertainties and seismic risk as a part of the design process.