Modeling socio-economic dimensions of large urban earthquakes to inform decision-making

How can socio-economic modeling inform efforts to reduce urban seismic risk? This presentation considers the practice, limitations, potential, and research needs related to modeling the social and economic dimensions of large urban earthquakes. It first provides an overview of established and emerging approaches to modeling impacts such as casualties, displaced populations, and economic disruption. It then argues that new lines of modeling are needed to better inform risk reduction decision-making, such as related to seismic design codes and building retrofit ordinances. Key priorities for model advances include incorporating urban development processes, clarifying costs and risks for different population groups, and better representing different risk reduction strategies.